Inventory at the €1.5M+ floor
As of the most recent feed refresh, the published Costa del Sol catalogue holds approximately 670 residences at or above €1.5 million, distributed across roughly 50 micro-locations. The concentration sits in Marbella city, Benahavís, Estepona, and Mijas — with Sotogrande as a distinct fifth pole.
Off-market depth is approximately 300 further residences held by the Muse Selection desk under private brief, in addition to the volumes held by other private-register desks operating in the same band.
Price per m² by premium zone
Average asking price per built m² varies by zone and by residence age. The 2025 closed-deal data anchored these bands:
— La Zagaleta: €14,800 / m² average, year-on-year +11% — Marbella Golden Mile (frontline beach): €15,500-€18,000 / m² — Sierra Blanca: €8,500-€11,000 / m² — Cascada de Camoján: €9,000-€12,500 / m² — Sotogrande Reserva / Kings & Queens: €7,500-€10,000 / m² — Nueva Andalucía hillside: €5,500-€8,000 / m² — Puerto Banús prime penthouse: €11,000-€15,000 / m²
These are working ranges from the desk; specific residences price outside these bands based on plot, view register, and finish age.
Where new build slots in
The supply of newly built villa stock in the premium zones is structurally constrained — most premium addresses are fully built out, and replacement-build cycles operate on a residence-by-residence basis rather than at scale. The activity in new-build sits primarily in Estepona New Golden Mile, parts of Benahavís, and in selected restricted developments on the Mijas side.
For active new developments under Muse Selection coverage, see the developments index.
Buyer cohorts driving 2026
Scandinavian buyer flow (Swedish and Norwegian principally) has remained elevated across the 2024-2026 window — partly tax-residency driven, partly second-home demand. American buyers represent a growing share, particularly in the €3-8 million register, with structuring frequently routed via Beckham-law eligibility. Middle-Eastern and Gulf buyers concentrate in the Golden Mile + La Zagaleta nodes.
The historically large Russian buyer cohort has compressed since 2022 but persists through EU-resident structures.
Risk and counter-narrative
The persistent narrative of an imminent Costa del Sol correction has been audible since approximately 2021. We do not see specific signal of a near-term breakdown in the premium register: the inventory tightness, the off-market dynamics, and the demand-side breadth across multiple cohorts argue for continued stability. That said, premium real estate is not a liquid asset and time-on-market in a soft moment can extend significantly. Buyers structuring against a near-term resale are operating against the asset class's grain.
How the Muse desk reads the cycle
Operationally: continue to source off-market where the published catalogue thins; honour the published pricing on accurate residences; flag clearly when a listing is at risk of dropping price. We do not publish a year-end market call — the bands above are the operating frame, refreshed quarterly.