Purchase price (€)Your currencySpot rate: 1 EUR = 1.0800 USDDays until close: 60Volatility estimate: ±4.0% over the window

Cost at spot today

€3,000,000 at 1.0800 USD/EUR$3,240,000

If unhedged · cost range at close

Low (EUR weakens 4.0%)$3,110,400

Best case for you

High (EUR strengthens 4.0%)$3,369,600

Worst case for you

Downside swing$129,600

The variance a forward contract removes

If you forward today

Locked total cost (indicative)$3,246,480

Spot + ~0.2% premium for broker spread + forward points

Variance removed vs. spot risk$123,120

Downside swing minus the cost of locking

Honest read. Forward contract strongly worth considering. The variance you remove materially exceeds the cost of forwarding for this trade size + timeline.